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Cambridge United vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
8/2/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Cambridge United44%
×Draw27%
Cheltenham29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.38
Cheltenham
1.06

Cambridge United creates 30% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 111 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.36
Cheltenham
1.08

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.05
Cheltenham
1.39

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
71%
Cambridge United or Cheltenham
73%
Draw or Cheltenham
56%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
21%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
75%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
40%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
16%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
65%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
29%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
60%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 87 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.39 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.36 + Cheltenham defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cheltenham attack 1.08 + Cambridge United defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cambridge United scores more
44%
level
27%
Cheltenham scores more
29%

Cambridge United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Cambridge United 1–0 Cheltenham

Cambridge United beat Cheltenham 1-0 in League Two on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge.