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Cheltenham vs Cambridge United — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
2/19/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 31Whaddon Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Cheltenham26%
×Draw26%
Cambridge United48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.04
Cambridge United
1.50

Cambridge United creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Cambridge United
1.38

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.61
Cambridge United
0.95

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more
Cambridge United-0.30scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
52%
Cheltenham or Cambridge United
74%
Draw or Cambridge United
74%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
10%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
65%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
28%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
9%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
78%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
44%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
35%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Cambridge United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Cambridge United attack 1.38 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cheltenham scores more
26%
level
26%
Cambridge United scores more
48%

Cambridge United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Cheltenham 2–0 Cambridge United

Cheltenham beat Cambridge United 2-0 in League Two on February 19, 2019.

The match was played at Whaddon Road in Cheltenham.