Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cheltenham vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Blackpool
Blackpool
2/13/2024League OneLeague One · Round 33Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham35%
×Draw28%
Blackpool37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.19
Blackpool
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 135 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.19
Blackpool
1.11

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.32
Blackpool
1.19

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
63%
Cheltenham or Blackpool
72%
Draw or Blackpool
65%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
15%
Blackpool wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
70%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
33%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
12%
Blackpool 1+ goals
70%
Blackpool 2+ goals
34%
Blackpool 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
49%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Blackpool defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cheltenham scores more
35%
level
28%
Blackpool scores more
37%

Blackpool at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Cheltenham 2–0 Blackpool

Cheltenham beat Blackpool 2-0 in League One on February 13, 2024.

The match was played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.