Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Blackpool vs Cheltenham — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
10/24/2023League OneLeague One · Round 15Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Blackpool50%
×Draw25%
Cheltenham25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.59
Cheltenham
1.06

Blackpool creates 50% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 69 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.51
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Blackpool
1.10
Cheltenham
1.67

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
75%
Blackpool or Cheltenham
75%
Draw or Cheltenham
50%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
26%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
80%
Blackpool 2+ goals
47%
Blackpool 3+ goals
21%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
65%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
29%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
66%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.51 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Blackpool defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Blackpool scores more
50%
level
25%
Cheltenham scores more
25%

Blackpool at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blackpool vs Cheltenham

Blackpool beat Cheltenham 3-2 in League One on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.