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Cheltenham vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
J. Pigott 67'
8/24/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 3EV Charger Points Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Cheltenham42%
×Draw28%
AFC Wimbledon30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.29
AFC Wimbledon
1.05

Cheltenham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 73 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.49
AFC Wimbledon
0.93

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.10

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
70%
Cheltenham or AFC Wimbledon
72%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
58%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
19%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
72%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
37%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
14%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
65%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
28%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
58%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.49 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Cheltenham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cheltenham scores more
42%
level
28%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
30%

Cheltenham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
R. JohnsonAFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon · D
7.7

Match Events

28'
Scot Bennett
65'
G. Miller← M. Taylor
67'
J. Pigott↳ R. Johnson
73'
L. Dulson← I. Bakare
73'
E. Archer← L. Young
81'
C. Maycock← M. Hippolyte
82'
M. Stevens← J. Pigott
84'
T. Pett← S. Bennett
84'
J. Thomas← R. Haynes
90+3'
Jake Reeves
90+6'
J. Ball← Omar Bugiel

Possession

42%Cheltenham

Shots

5Cheltenham

Pass accuracy

46%Cheltenham

Statistics

CheltenhamAFC
Overview
42%Possession58%
5Total Shots9
3Corners8
7Fouls16
Shots
5Total Shots9
3On Target4
1Off Target2
1Blocked3
0Inside Box5
5Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
270Total Passes385
151Accurate Passes257
56%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

League Two: Cheltenham 0–1 AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon beat Cheltenham 1-0 in League Two on August 24, 2024.

Goals: J. Pigott (67').

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 5.

The match was played at EV Charger Points Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.