AFC Wimbledon 1–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cheltenham

M. Browne 37'

M. Taylor 79'

A. Hay 24'

3/11/2025

League Two · Round 26The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AFC Wimbledon46%

×Draw27%

Cheltenham27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.03

AFC Wimbledon

1.42

Cheltenham

1.03

AFC Wimbledon creates 38% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 95 away

1.47

creates per match

1.06

1.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.47

Cheltenham

1.06

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.00

Cheltenham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

73%

AFC Wimbledon or Cheltenham

73%

Draw or Cheltenham

54%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

22%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

76%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

41%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

17%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

64%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

28%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

63%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

46%

level

27%

Cheltenham scores more

27%

AFC Wimbledon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Hay

Cheltenham · F

8.3

Match Events

22'

Joe Lewis

24'

A. Hay↳ E. Archer

37'

M. Browne↳ J. Tilley

45+1'

V. Adedokun← D. Power

66'

M. Taylor← G. Miller

66'

E. Williams← J. Thomas

77'

J. Kelly← M. Stevens

79'

M. Taylor↳ A. Hay

84'

A. Sasu← J. Tilley

84'

O. Foyo← Omar Bugiel

87'

C. Maycock← A. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCCheltenham

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots8

6Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots8

2On Target5

4Off Target2

11Blocked1

14Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

369Total Passes207

250Accurate Passes95

68%Pass Accuracy46%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0