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Cheltenham vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Preview
18:45
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
4/27/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 44Whaddon Road
Big match
40%
Cheltenham
model favours
40%27%33%
1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cheltenham40%
×Draw27%
Accrington ST33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.34
Accrington ST
1.20

Cheltenham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Accrington ST
0.79

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.61
Accrington ST
1.55

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more
Accrington ST-0.23scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
67%
Cheltenham or Accrington ST
73%
Draw or Accrington ST
60%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
18%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
74%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
39%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
15%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
70%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
34%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
55%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.55 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Accrington ST defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Accrington ST attack 0.79 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cheltenham scores more
40%
level
27%
Accrington ST scores more
33%

Cheltenham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Cheltenham
Balanced
Accrington ST
Balanced
47%Possession47%
65%Pass accuracy62%
10.6Shots11.5
1.08xGBiggest gap0.89
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CheltenhamAccrington ST

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Cheltenham
3
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 38%
1–31–00–02–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cheltenham
WLLL
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cheltenham vs Accrington ST — Match Preview

Cheltenham face Accrington ST on April 27, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cheltenham host Accrington ST at Whaddon Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.