Accrington ST 0–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cheltenham

1/28/2025

League Two · Round 29Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Accrington ST37%

×Draw28%

Cheltenham34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.13

Accrington ST

1.19

Cheltenham

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

0.97

creates per match

1.01

1.25

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.97

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.25

Cheltenham

1.41

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.23scores more

Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

66%

Accrington ST or Cheltenham

72%

Draw or Cheltenham

63%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

16%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

70%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

33%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

12%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

68%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

31%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

52%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.97 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Accrington ST defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more

37%

level

28%

Cheltenham scores more

34%

Accrington ST at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

S. Stubbs

Cheltenham · D

8.0

Match Events

61'

E. Williams← T. Backwell

62'

A. Henderson← A. Hunter

62'

S. Conneely← J. Batty

63'

63'

64'

68'

69'

86'

86'

A. Hay← J. Thomas

90+3'

Sonny Aljofree

90+1'

Connor O'Brien

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonCheltenham

Overview

53%Possession47%

3Total Shots10

4Corners6

16Fouls10

Shots

3Total Shots10

1On Target0

1Off Target7

1Blocked3

2Inside Box4

1Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

289Total Passes244

171Accurate Passes135

59%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1