Cheltenham 2–1 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Accrington ST

R. Bowman 80'

M. Norkett 69'

D. Costelloe 39'

10/1/2024

League Two · Round 9EV Charger Points Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cheltenham40%

×Draw26%

Accrington ST34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.26

Cheltenham

1.41

Accrington ST

1.26

Cheltenham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.13

creates per match

0.90

1.61

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Accrington ST

0.90

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.61

Accrington ST

1.69

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more

Accrington ST-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

66%

Cheltenham or Accrington ST

74%

Draw or Accrington ST

60%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

19%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

76%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

41%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

17%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

72%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

36%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

55%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Accrington ST defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Accrington ST attack 0.90 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cheltenham scores more

40%

level

26%

Accrington ST scores more

34%

Cheltenham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Kinsella

Cheltenham · D

7.5

Match Events

19'

Joel Colwill

30'

Jake Thomas Batty

39'

D. Costelloe↳ C. O'Brien

59'

M. Norkett← S. Bennett

67'

Nelson Khumbeni

67'

A. Pickles← J. Batty

69'

M. Norkett↳ E. Archer

75'

T. Walton← D. Costelloe

75'

J. Knowles← K. Mooney

80'

R. Bowman↳ L. Kinsella

84'

L. Laing← J. Colwill

88'

Lewis Shipley

90+2'

Tom Bradbury

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamAccrington

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots10

4Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

5On Target3

5Off Target3

1Blocked4

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

289Total Passes339

129Accurate Passes198

45%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2