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Chelsea vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
West Ham
West Ham
Azpilicueta 36'
Javier Hernández 73'
4/8/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Chelsea53%
×Draw23%
West Ham24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.85
West Ham
1.17

Chelsea creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 35 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.86
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Chelsea
1.28
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
76%
Chelsea or West Ham
77%
Draw or West Ham
47%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
30%
West Ham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
84%
Chelsea 2+ goals
55%
Chelsea 3+ goals
28%
West Ham 1+ goals
69%
West Ham 2+ goals
33%
West Ham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
69%
West Ham (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

West Ham attack 1.06 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chelsea scores more
53%
level
23%
West Ham scores more
24%

Chelsea at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. HazardChelseaChelsea · F
8.3

Match Events

36'
Azpilicueta↳ Álvaro Morata
46'
Mark Noble
64'
P. Evra← A. Cresswell
70'
Javier Hernández← E. Fernandes
73'
Javier Hernández↳ M. Arnautović
78'
Pedro← V. Moses
78'
O. Giroud← Álvaro Morata
85'
J. Cullen← João Mário

Possession

59%Chelsea

Shots

23Chelsea

Pass accuracy

53%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaWest
Overview
59%Possession41%
23Total Shots5
10Corners6
7Fouls11
Shots
23Total Shots5
6On Target2
11Off Target0
6Blocked3
15Inside Box3
8Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
594Total Passes409
504Accurate Passes308
85%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Premier League: Chelsea 1–1 West Ham

Chelsea and West Ham drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 8, 2018.

Goals: Azpilicueta (36'), Javier Hernández (73').

Chelsea controlled possession (59%) and registered 23 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.