Chelsea 1–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

West Brom

Diego Costa 76'

12/11/2016

Premier League · Round 15Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Chelsea55%

×Draw25%

West Brom21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.91

Chelsea

1.65

West Brom

0.91

Chelsea creates 81% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 94 away

1.78

creates per match

0.84

0.97

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Chelsea

1.78

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Chelsea

0.97

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

79%

Chelsea or West Brom

75%

Draw or West Brom

45%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

30%

West Brom wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

81%

Chelsea 2+ goals

49%

Chelsea 3+ goals

23%

West Brom 1+ goals

60%

West Brom 2+ goals

23%

West Brom 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

73%

West Brom (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.97 · 202 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.78 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.65

West Brom attack 0.84 + Chelsea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chelsea scores more

55%

level

25%

West Brom scores more

21%

Chelsea at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Azpilicueta

Chelsea · D

7.6

Match Events

19'

29'

48'

51'

56'

63'

Willian← Pedro

74'

Fàbregas← V. Moses

76'

Diego Costa

78'

J. McClean← M. Phillips

78'

N. Chadli← J. Morrison

79'

B. Ivanović← E. Hazard

84'

H. Robson-Kanu← C. Brunt

88'

Nemanja Matić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaWest

Overview

66%Possession34%

12Total Shots6

3Corners1

6Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots6

2On Target1

8Off Target5

2Blocked0

3Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

577Total Passes283

488Accurate Passes183

85%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2