Chelsea 4–3 Watford: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.96

Chelsea

1.79

Watford

0.96

Chelsea creates 86% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 112 away

1.78

creates per match

0.96

0.97

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Chelsea

1.78

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Chelsea

0.97

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

80%

Chelsea or Watford

77%

Draw or Watford

43%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

32%

Watford wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea 2+ goals

53%

Chelsea 3+ goals

26%

Watford 1+ goals

62%

Watford 2+ goals

25%

Watford 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

74%

Watford (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.97 · 202 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.78 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Watford attack 0.96 + Chelsea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chelsea scores more

57%

level

23%

Watford scores more

20%

Chelsea at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Willian

Chelsea · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

11'

22'

24'

30'

36'

49'

51'

58'

71'

74'

75'

O. Aina← Kenedy

79'

Fàbregas← N. Chalobah

83'

84'

88'

90'

90'

90'

90'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaWatford

Overview

47%Possession53%

24Total Shots9

8Corners3

7Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots9

9On Target3

7Off Target5

8Blocked1

17Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

456Total Passes522

381Accurate Passes446

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2