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Chelsea vs Swansea — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Swansea
Swansea
F. Fernández 30' (OG)
Oscar 23'
B. Gomis 55' (pen)
A. Ayew 29'
8/8/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Chelsea55%
×Draw24%
Swansea21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.73
Swansea
0.96

Chelsea creates 80% more chances

Season form · 201 home / 74 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.78
Swansea
0.93

allows per match

Chelsea
0.98
Swansea
1.69

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par
Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
79%
Chelsea or Swansea
76%
Draw or Swansea
45%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
31%
Swansea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
82%
Chelsea 2+ goals
52%
Chelsea 3+ goals
25%
Swansea 1+ goals
62%
Swansea 2+ goals
25%
Swansea 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
73%
Swansea (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 201 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.78 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Swansea attack 0.93 + Chelsea defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chelsea scores more
55%
level
24%
Swansea scores more
21%

Chelsea at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. ShelveySwanseaSwansea · M
8.2

Match Events

18'
Jonjo Shelvey
23'
Oscar
29'
A. Ayew
30'
F. FernándezOwn goal
41'
J. Cork← Sung-Yong Ki
45'
Jack Cork
52'
Thibaut Courtois
54'
John Terry
54'
A. Begović← Oscar
55'
B. GomisPenalty
71'
W. Routledge← J. Montero
76'
K. Zouma← Fàbregas
79'
Éder← B. Gomis
84'
R. Falcao← Willian
90'
Ashley Williams

Possession

52%Chelsea

Shots

11Chelsea

Pass accuracy

50%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaSwansea
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots17
4Corners8
0Fouls0
Shots
11Total Shots17
3On Target10
5Off Target2
3Blocked5
7Inside Box12
5Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
433Total Passes399
347Accurate Passes322
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
0Fouls0
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Premier League: Chelsea 2–2 Swansea

Chelsea and Swansea drew 2-2 in Premier League on August 8, 2015.

Goals: Oscar (23'), A. Ayew (29'), F. Fernández (30' o.g.), B. Gomis (55' pen).

Chelsea controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.