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Chelsea vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Leicester
Leicester
M. Mount 7'
W. Ndidi 67'
8/18/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Chelsea49%
×Draw21%
Leicester30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
2.08
Leicester
1.60

Chelsea creates 30% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.86
Leicester
1.92

allows per match

Chelsea
1.28
Leicester
2.30

finishing

Chelsea-0.42scores less
Leicester-0.25scores less

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
70%
Chelsea or Leicester
79%
Draw or Leicester
51%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
28%
Leicester wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
87%
Chelsea 2+ goals
61%
Chelsea 3+ goals
34%
Leicester 1+ goals
80%
Leicester 2+ goals
47%
Leicester 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
62%
Leicester (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.30 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Leicester defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.08

Leicester attack 1.92 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chelsea scores more
49%
level
21%
Leicester scores more
30%

Chelsea at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. MountChelseaChelsea · M
7.7

Match Events

7'
M. Mount
37'
Jorginho
61'
T. Abraham← O. Giroud
67'
W. Ndidi↳ J. Maddison
71'
M. Kovačić← Jorginho
71'
Willian← C. Pulisic
73'
D. Praet← H. Choudhury
80'
M. Albrighton← Ayoze Pérez

Possession

50%Chelsea

Shots

14Chelsea

Pass accuracy

51%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaLeicester
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots12
4Corners5
9Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots12
5On Target3
7Off Target7
2Blocked2
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
454Total Passes455
359Accurate Passes352
79%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides3

Premier League: Chelsea 1–1 Leicester

Chelsea and Leicester drew 1-1 in Premier League on August 18, 2019.

Goals: M. Mount (7'), W. Ndidi (67').

Chelsea controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.