Chelsea 0–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

J. Vardy 51'

12/22/2018

Premier League · Round 18Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Chelsea50%

×Draw22%

Leicester28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.45

Chelsea

2.00

Leicester

1.45

Chelsea creates 38% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 9 away

1.89

creates per match

1.65

1.25

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Chelsea

1.89

Leicester

1.65

allows per match

Chelsea

1.25

Leicester

2.11

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.45scores less

Leicester-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

72%

Chelsea or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

50%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

29%

Leicester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

86%

Chelsea 2+ goals

59%

Chelsea 3+ goals

32%

Leicester 1+ goals

77%

Leicester 2+ goals

42%

Leicester 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

64%

Leicester (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.25 · 39 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.89 + Leicester defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.00

Leicester attack 1.65 + Chelsea defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chelsea scores more

50%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

28%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

K. Schmeichel

Leicester · G

7.9

Match Events

31'

Wilfred Ndidi

51'

J. Vardy↳ J. Maddison

61'

R. Loftus-Cheek← M. Kovačić

61'

75'

81'

82'

84'

K. Iheanacho← J. Vardy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaLeicester

Overview

72%Possession28%

17Total Shots8

9Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots8

5On Target3

8Off Target2

4Blocked3

11Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

693Total Passes262

609Accurate Passes179

88%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Leicester

Leicester beat Chelsea 1-0 in Premier League on December 22, 2018.

Goals: J. Vardy (51').

Chelsea controlled possession (72%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Leicester