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Chelsea vs Brentford — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Brentford
Brentford
B. Mbeumo 78'
César Azpilicueta 37' (OG)
4/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Chelsea50%
×Draw23%
Brentford26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.77
Brentford
1.21

Chelsea creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.86
Brentford
1.14

allows per match

Chelsea
1.28
Brentford
1.68

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less
Brentford+0.08on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
74%
Chelsea or Brentford
77%
Draw or Brentford
50%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
28%
Brentford wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
83%
Chelsea 2+ goals
53%
Chelsea 3+ goals
26%
Brentford 1+ goals
70%
Brentford 2+ goals
34%
Brentford 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
66%
Brentford (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.68 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Brentford defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.77

Brentford attack 1.14 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chelsea scores more
50%
level
23%
Brentford scores more
26%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
N. KantéChelseaChelsea · F
7.7

Match Events

37'
César AzpilicuetaOwn goal
46'
Mathias Jensen
46'
P. Aubameyang← César Azpilicueta
46'
M. Mudryk← C. Gallagher
62'
S. Baptiste← M. Jensen
62'
B. Mbeumo← Y. Wissa
62'
M. Damsgaard← F. Onyeka
73'
Wesley Fofana
73'
Rico Henry
78'
B. Mbeumo↳ S. Baptiste
79'
João Félix← E. Fernández
79'
N. Madueke← R. Sterling
83'
K. Schade← I. Toney
90+1'
A. Hickey← R. Henry

Possession

73%Chelsea

Shots

15Chelsea

Pass accuracy

57%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaBrentford
Overview
73%Possession27%
15Total Shots7
1.27Expected Goals (xG)1.15
5Corners2
5Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots7
4On Target1
8Off Target5
3Blocked1
10Inside Box7
5Outside Box0
Passing
73%Possession27%
696Total Passes263
614Accurate Passes173
88%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
5Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Brentford

Brentford beat Chelsea 2-0 in Premier League on April 26, 2023.

Goals: César Azpilicueta (37' o.g.), B. Mbeumo (78').

Chelsea controlled possession (73%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.