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Chelsea vs Brentford — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Brentford
Brentford
A. Rüdiger 48'
Y. Wissa 87'
V. Janelt 60', 50'
C. Eriksen 54'
4/2/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Chelsea51%
×Draw23%
Brentford26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.78
Brentford
1.21

Chelsea creates 47% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 26 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.86
Brentford
1.14

allows per match

Chelsea
1.28
Brentford
1.70

finishing

Chelsea-0.42scores less
Brentford+0.05on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
74%
Chelsea or Brentford
77%
Draw or Brentford
49%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
28%
Brentford wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
83%
Chelsea 2+ goals
53%
Chelsea 3+ goals
26%
Brentford 1+ goals
70%
Brentford 2+ goals
34%
Brentford 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
66%
Brentford (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Brentford defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.78

Brentford attack 1.14 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chelsea scores more
51%
level
23%
Brentford scores more
26%

Chelsea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
V. JaneltBrentfordBrentford · M
8.7

Match Events

48'
A. Rüdiger↳ N. Kanté
50'
V. Janelt↳ B. Mbeumo
54'
C. Eriksen↳ B. Mbeumo
55'
R. James← Marcos Alonso
60'
V. Janelt↳ I. Toney
64'
M. Kovačić← T. Werner
65'
R. Lukaku← N. Kanté
82'
M. Jensen← V. Janelt
85'
Y. Wissa← B. Mbeumo
87'
Y. Wissa
88'
Sergi Canós← R. Henry

Possession

71%Chelsea

Shots

21Chelsea

Pass accuracy

56%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaBrentford
Overview
71%Possession29%
21Total Shots17
12Corners7
11Fouls7
Shots
21Total Shots17
8On Target6
9Off Target5
4Blocked6
12Inside Box14
9Outside Box3
Passing
71%Possession29%
641Total Passes260
582Accurate Passes187
91%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls7

Premier League: Chelsea 1–4 Brentford

Brentford beat Chelsea 4-1 in Premier League on April 2, 2022.

Goals: A. Rüdiger (48'), V. Janelt (50', 60'), C. Eriksen (54'), Y. Wissa (87').

Chelsea controlled possession (71%) and registered 21 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.