Chelsea U18 4–0 Brighton U18: Result & Stats

Chelsea U18

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brighton U18

C. Atherton 90'

M. Eboue 88'

C. Ezenwata 80' (pen)

K. Barbour 20'

9/20/2025

League #696 · South - 5Cobham Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chelsea U1853%

×Draw19%

Brighton U1828%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chelsea U18Expected goals in this matchBrighton U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.83

Chelsea U18

2.55

Brighton U18

1.83

Chelsea U18 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

3.11

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Chelsea U18

3.11

Brighton U18

2.00

allows per match

Chelsea U18

1.67

Brighton U18

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea U18+0.00on par

Brighton U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea U18 ↓

Brighton U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Chelsea U18 or draw

72%

Chelsea U18 or Brighton U18

81%

Draw or Brighton U18

47%

Winning margin

Chelsea U18 wins by 2+

34%

Brighton U18 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chelsea U18 1+ goals

92%

Chelsea U18 2+ goals

72%

Chelsea U18 3+ goals

46%

Brighton U18 1+ goals

84%

Brighton U18 2+ goals

54%

Brighton U18 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Chelsea U18 (draw refunded)

66%

Brighton U18 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea U18 at home — creates 3.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Brighton U18 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea U18 attack 3.11 + Brighton U18 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.55

Brighton U18 attack 2.00 + Chelsea U18 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chelsea U18 scores more

53%

level

19%

Brighton U18 scores more

28%

Chelsea U18 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chelsea U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

K. Barbour↳ C. Diakite

80'

C. EzenwataPenalty

88'

M. Eboue↳ C. Ezenwata

90'

C. Atherton↳ H. McGlinchey

Chelsea

Brighton

1

2

3

8

4

5

7

6

9

10

11

1

2

5

8

3

4

7

6

9

10

11

Manager: Hassan Sulaiman

Chelsea U18 substitutes

16Atherton15Grimwade14McGlinchey12Silva13Austin

Manager: Björn Hamberg

Brighton U18 substitutes

13Cullinane15Akapo14Oppong12Morby16Crutchett

League #696: Chelsea U18 4–0 Brighton U18

Chelsea U18 beat Brighton U18 4-0 in League #696 on September 20, 2025.

Goals: K. Barbour (20'), C. Ezenwata (80' pen), M. Eboue (88'), C. Atherton (90').

The match was played at Cobham Training Centre in Stoke d'Abernon, Surrey.

Chelsea U18 vs Brighton U18 — League #696 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #696: Chelsea U18 4–0 Brighton U18