Brighton U18 3–4 Chelsea U18: Result & Stats

Brighton U18

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Chelsea U18

T. Silsby 82'

A. West 73', 51'

C. Ezenwata 79', 69'

R. Kavuma-McQueen 65'

J. Vidal-Philbert 37'

1/25/2025

League #696 · South - 14American Express Elite Football Performance Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Brighton U1812%

×Draw15%

Chelsea U1873%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brighton U18Expected goals in this matchChelsea U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

2.88

Brighton U18

1.12

Chelsea U18

2.88

Chelsea U18 creates 157% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.11

creates per match

2.88

2.89

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Brighton U18

1.11

Chelsea U18

2.88

allows per match

Brighton U18

2.89

Chelsea U18

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton U18+0.00on par

Chelsea U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton U18 ↓

Chelsea U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Brighton U18 or draw

27%

Brighton U18 or Chelsea U18

85%

Draw or Chelsea U18

88%

Winning margin

Brighton U18 wins by 2+

4%

Chelsea U18 wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Brighton U18 1+ goals

67%

Brighton U18 2+ goals

31%

Brighton U18 3+ goals

10%

Chelsea U18 1+ goals

94%

Chelsea U18 2+ goals

78%

Chelsea U18 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Brighton U18 (draw refunded)

14%

Chelsea U18 (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton U18 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

Chelsea U18 away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton U18 attack 1.11 + Chelsea U18 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Chelsea U18 attack 2.88 + Brighton U18 defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Brighton U18 scores more

12%

level

15%

Chelsea U18 scores more

73%

Chelsea U18 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Chelsea U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

J. Vidal-Philbert↳ H. McGlinchey

44'

H. McGlinchey

46'

W. Nutter← O. Harrison

51'

A. West↳ M. Hayden

65'

R. Kavuma-McQueen↳ W. Nutter

66'

Y. Ibrahim← R. Gorman

68'

T. Silsby

69'

C. Ezenwata↳ R. Kavuma-McQueen

71'

M. Washington← J. Vidal-Philbert

73'

A. West↳ Y. Ibrahim

76'

J. Middleton← D. Lane

76'

M. Nicoll-Jazuli← H. McGlinchey

78'

R. Watson← C. Holland

79'

C. Ezenwata

82'

T. Silsby↳ S. Nti

86'

H. Kasvosve← N. Oriola

90'

M. Nicoll Jazuli

90+4'

H. Sands

90+7'

R. Kavuma McQueen

Brighton

Chelsea

1

Sands

5

A

▼

4

3

2

6

▼

Harrison

10

Idrissi

11

⚽A

Kavuma-Mc

8

▼

Holland

7

⚽

▼

Vidal-Phi

9

⚽2

Ezenwata

1

Mansell

4

Mthunzi

2

A

Hayden

5

Vickers

3

Outen

7

▼

Oriola

10

▼

Gorman

8

A

Nti

6

▼

Lane

9

⚽2

West

11

⚽

Silsby

Manager: A. Brammer

66'▲Y. Ibrahim←▼R. Gorman

76'▲J. Middleton←▼D. Lane

86'▲H. Kasvosve←▼N. Oriola

Brighton U18 substitutes

15Ibrahim13Middleton14Kasvosve12Ferdinand16Ademola

Manager: H. Sulaiman

46'▲W. Nutter←▼O. Harrison

71'▲M. Washington←▼J. Vidal-Philbert

76'▲M. Nicoll-Jazuli←▼H. McGlinchey

78'▲R. Watson←▼C. Holland

Chelsea U18 substitutes

15Nutter12Washington16Nicoll-Jazuli14Watson13Bernal