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Chelsea U18 vs Aston Villa U18 — League #696 2026

Chelsea U18
Chelsea U18
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aston Villa U18
Aston Villa U18
2/24/2024League #696League #696 · South - 18Cobham Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chelsea U1867%
×Draw15%
Aston Villa U1818%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea U18
3.56
Aston Villa U18
1.88

Chelsea U18 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

creates per match

Chelsea U18
4.67
Aston Villa U18
2.75

allows per match

Chelsea U18
1.00
Aston Villa U18
2.45

finishing

Chelsea U18+0.00on par
Aston Villa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea U18 ↓

Aston Villa U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Chelsea U18 or draw
82%
Chelsea U18 or Aston Villa U18
85%
Draw or Aston Villa U18
33%

Winning margin

Chelsea U18 wins by 2+
49%
Aston Villa U18 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chelsea U18 1+ goals
97%
Chelsea U18 2+ goals
86%
Chelsea U18 3+ goals
67%
Aston Villa U18 1+ goals
85%
Aston Villa U18 2+ goals
56%
Aston Villa U18 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Chelsea U18 (draw refunded)
79%
Aston Villa U18 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea U18 at home — creates 4.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Aston Villa U18 away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea U18 attack 4.67 + Aston Villa U18 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 3.56

Aston Villa U18 attack 2.75 + Chelsea U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Chelsea U18 scores more
67%
level
15%
Aston Villa U18 scores more
18%

Chelsea U18 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chelsea U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chelsea U18 vs Aston Villa U18

Chelsea U18 beat Aston Villa U18 2-0 in League #696 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Cobham Training Centre in Stoke d'Abernon, Surrey.