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Aston Villa U18 vs Chelsea U18 — League #696 2026

Aston Villa U18
Aston Villa U18
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chelsea U18
Chelsea U18
3/1/2025League #696League #696 · South - 19Bodymoor Heath Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aston Villa U1831%
×Draw23%
Chelsea U1846%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa U18
1.44
Chelsea U18
1.81

Chelsea U18 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Aston Villa U18
1.88
Chelsea U18
2.00

allows per match

Aston Villa U18
1.63
Chelsea U18
1.00

finishing

Aston Villa U18+0.00on par
Chelsea U18+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa U18 ↓

Chelsea U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Aston Villa U18 or draw
54%
Aston Villa U18 or Chelsea U18
77%
Draw or Chelsea U18
69%

Winning margin

Aston Villa U18 wins by 2+
14%
Chelsea U18 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Aston Villa U18 1+ goals
76%
Aston Villa U18 2+ goals
42%
Aston Villa U18 3+ goals
18%
Chelsea U18 1+ goals
84%
Chelsea U18 2+ goals
54%
Chelsea U18 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa U18 (draw refunded)
40%
Chelsea U18 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa U18 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Chelsea U18 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa U18 attack 1.88 + Chelsea U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chelsea U18 attack 2.00 + Aston Villa U18 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aston Villa U18 scores more
31%
level
23%
Chelsea U18 scores more
46%

Chelsea U18 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chelsea U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aston Villa U18 vs Chelsea U18

Chelsea U18 beat Aston Villa U18 2-1 in League #696 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Bodymoor Heath Training Ground in Bodymoor Heath, Warwickshire.