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Chayka vs Krylya Sovetov — First League 2018

Chayka
Chayka
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
8/16/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Chayka25%
×Draw27%
Krylya Sovetov49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
0.95
Krylya Sovetov
1.46

Krylya Sovetov creates 54% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 22 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.04
Krylya Sovetov
1.55

allows per match

Chayka
1.36
Krylya Sovetov
0.86

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
51%
Chayka or Krylya Sovetov
73%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
75%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
9%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
61%
Chayka 2+ goals
25%
Chayka 3+ goals
7%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
77%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
43%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
33%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.04 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Chayka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chayka scores more
25%
level
27%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
49%

Krylya Sovetov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Chayka 0–3 Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Chayka 3-0 in First League on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.