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Chayka vs Krylia Sovetov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chayka
Chayka
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
2/20/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chayka36%
×Draw20%
Krylia Sovetov45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
2.16
Krylia Sovetov
2.41

Krylia Sovetov creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Chayka
2.18
Krylia Sovetov
2.63

allows per match

Chayka
2.18
Krylia Sovetov
2.13

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
55%
Chayka or Krylia Sovetov
80%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
64%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
20%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
88%
Chayka 2+ goals
63%
Chayka 3+ goals
36%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
91%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
69%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
45%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 2.18, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 2.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 2.18 + Krylia Sovetov defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.16

Krylia Sovetov attack 2.63 + Chayka defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chayka scores more
36%
level
20%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
45%

Krylia Sovetov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Chayka
Krylia
Dmitri Kombarov
Manager: Dmitri Kombarov
Magomed Adiev
Manager: Magomed Adiev

Match Recap: Chayka vs Krylia Sovetov

Krylia Sovetov beat Chayka 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on February 20, 2026.