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Chayka vs Baltika — First League 2018

Chayka
Chayka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Baltika
Baltika
3/20/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Chayka28%
×Draw27%
Baltika44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.02
Baltika
1.35

Baltika creates 32% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 109 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.04
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Chayka
1.36
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
56%
Chayka or Baltika
73%
Draw or Baltika
72%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
11%
Baltika wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
64%
Chayka 2+ goals
27%
Chayka 3+ goals
8%
Baltika 1+ goals
74%
Baltika 2+ goals
39%
Baltika 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
39%
Baltika (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.04 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Baltika attack 1.34 + Chayka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chayka scores more
28%
level
27%
Baltika scores more
44%

Baltika at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Chayka 0–1 Baltika

Baltika beat Chayka 1-0 in First League on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.