Baltika 4–0 Chayka: Result & Stats | First League

Baltika

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Chayka

N. Titkov 19', 9'

B. Gil 17'

E. Chernov 15'

3/30/2025

First League · Round 26Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Baltika51%

×Draw27%

Chayka22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchChayka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.84

Baltika

1.42

Chayka

0.84

Baltika creates 69% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 68 away

1.27

creates per match

0.94

0.75

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Chayka

0.94

allows per match

Baltika

0.75

Chayka

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Chayka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

78%

Baltika or Chayka

73%

Draw or Chayka

49%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

25%

Chayka wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

76%

Baltika 2+ goals

41%

Baltika 3+ goals

17%

Chayka 1+ goals

57%

Chayka 2+ goals

21%

Chayka 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

69%

Chayka (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Chayka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Chayka defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chayka attack 0.94 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baltika scores more

51%

level

27%

Chayka scores more

22%

Baltika at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

15'

17'

19'

46'

46'

Y. Kovalev← M. Petrov

46'

D. Pelikh← A. Evdokimov

59'

Kamil Ibragimov

62'

Andrey Mendel

63'

O. Isaenko← A. Mendel

63'

V. Lisakovich← N. Titkov

67'

N. Malyarov← D. Yanov

67'

O. Nikolaev← D. Pivovarov

67'

V. Rudenko← A. Khokhlachev

67'

S. Biblik← Y. Arbuzov

74'

R. Ozdoev← B. Gil

82'

Yuriy Kovalev

Statistics

BaltikaChayka

Discipline

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

First League: Baltika 4–0 Chayka

Baltika beat Chayka 4-0 in First League on March 30, 2025.

Goals: N. Titkov (9', 19'), E. Chernov (15'), B. Gil (17').

The match was played at Rostec Arena in Kaliningrad.

Baltika vs Chayka — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: Baltika 4–0 Chayka