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Chayka vs Anzhi — Second League - Group 1 2020

Chayka
Chayka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Anzhi
Anzhi
9/27/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Chayka51%
×Draw24%
Anzhi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.67
Anzhi
1.07

Chayka creates 56% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.97
Anzhi
1.56

allows per match

Chayka
0.59
Anzhi
1.38

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Anzhi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Anzhi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
76%
Chayka or Anzhi
76%
Draw or Anzhi
49%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
28%
Anzhi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
81%
Chayka 2+ goals
50%
Chayka 3+ goals
23%
Anzhi 1+ goals
66%
Anzhi 2+ goals
29%
Anzhi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
68%
Anzhi (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.59 · 32 matches

Anzhi away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.97 + Anzhi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.67

Anzhi attack 1.56 + Chayka defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chayka scores more
51%
level
24%
Anzhi scores more
24%

Chayka at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chayka 2 – 1 Anzhi

Chayka beat Anzhi 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu in Rostov-na-Donu.