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Anzhi vs Chayka — Second League - Group 1 2020

Anzhi
Anzhi
FT
3 – 6
HT: 1 – 4
Chayka
Chayka
4/23/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Anzhi Sports Complex pole 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Anzhi26%
×Draw24%
Chayka49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzhi
1.17
Chayka
1.69

Chayka creates 44% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Anzhi
1.72
Chayka
2.32

allows per match

Anzhi
1.06
Chayka
0.61

finishing

Anzhi+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzhi ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Anzhi or draw
51%
Anzhi or Chayka
76%
Draw or Chayka
74%

Winning margin

Anzhi wins by 2+
11%
Chayka wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Anzhi 1+ goals
69%
Anzhi 2+ goals
33%
Anzhi 3+ goals
11%
Chayka 1+ goals
82%
Chayka 2+ goals
50%
Chayka 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Anzhi (draw refunded)
35%
Chayka (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzhi at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

Chayka away — creates 2.32, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzhi attack 1.72 + Chayka defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chayka attack 2.32 + Anzhi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Anzhi scores more
26%
level
24%
Chayka scores more
49%

Chayka at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Anzhi 3–6 Chayka

Chayka beat Anzhi 6-3 in Second League - Group 1 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Anzhi Sports Complex pole 3 in Kaspiysk.