Chayka 0–3 Alaniya Vladikavkaz: Result & Stats

Chayka

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

A. Kozyrev 88'

R. Gogniev 81'

A. Zakirov 45+2'

5/3/2025

First League · Round 31Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Chayka34%

×Draw27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChaykaExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.30

Chayka

1.19

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 70 away

1.04

creates per match

1.24

1.36

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Chayka

1.04

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

Chayka

1.36

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chayka or draw

61%

Chayka or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

73%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

66%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+

14%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals

70%

Chayka 2+ goals

33%

Chayka 3+ goals

12%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

73%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

37%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)

46%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.04 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Chayka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chayka scores more

34%

level

27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

39%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

31'

40'

45+2'

58'

M. Bammatgereev← D. Pivovarov

58'

V. Rudenko← N. Malyarov

59'

A. Kozyrev← T. Toboev

62'

Nikita Karmaev

68'

R. Daurov← D. Chertkoev

68'

V. Nafikov← S. Ogoev

69'

Artur Byazrov

69'

D. Chernyakov← D. Yanov

81'

R. Gogniev

88'

A. Kozyrev

90'

T. Gagloev← R. Gogniev

90'

David Kokoev I← A. Khugaev

Statistics

ChaykaAlaniya

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0