Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–3 Chayka: Result & Stats

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Chayka

I. Tsallagov 90+4'

B. Khadartsev 36'

V. Rudenko 61', 38'

N. Malyarov 14'

10/27/2024

First League · Round 16Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz48%

×Draw25%

Chayka26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchChayka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.09

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

Chayka

1.09

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 44% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 68 away

1.57

creates per match

0.94

1.24

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

Chayka

0.94

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

Chayka

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Chayka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

74%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Chayka

75%

Draw or Chayka

52%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

25%

Chayka wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

79%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

46%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

21%

Chayka 1+ goals

66%

Chayka 2+ goals

30%

Chayka 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

65%

Chayka (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Chayka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Chayka defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Chayka attack 0.94 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

48%

level

25%

Chayka scores more

26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

28'

36'

38'

46'

46'

S. Makarov← A. Khugaev

61'

V. Rudenko

64'

Matvey Uzhgin

65'

M. Bammatgereev← D. Yanov

65'

O. Nikolaev← M. Uzhgin

65'

D. Chernyakov← N. Malyarov

68'

B. Gurtsiev← N. Abdokov

68'

W. Chimezie← B. Khadartsev

68'

D. Kokoev← R. Daurov

69'

Y. Arbuzov← A. Khokhlachev

70'

79'

90+10'

90'

90+10'

A. Nesterov← V. Rudenko

90+4'

I. Tsallagov

Statistics

AlaniyaChayka

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0