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Chaves vs Benfica — Taça de Portugal 2018

Chaves
Chaves
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Benfica
Benficaadvanced
10/17/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 64Estadio Municipal de Chaves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chaves23%
×Draw29%
Benfica48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves
0.81
Benfica
1.29

Benfica creates 59% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

creates per match

Chaves
1.00
Benfica
1.92

allows per match

Chaves
0.67
Benfica
0.63

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par
Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chaves or draw
52%
Chaves or Benfica
71%
Draw or Benfica
77%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+
7%
Benfica wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals
56%
Chaves 2+ goals
19%
Chaves 3+ goals
5%
Benfica 1+ goals
72%
Benfica 2+ goals
37%
Benfica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)
33%
Benfica (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.00 + Benfica defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Benfica attack 1.92 + Chaves defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chaves scores more
23%
level
29%
Benfica scores more
48%

Benfica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chaves vs Benfica

Benfica beat Chaves 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chaves in Chaves.