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Chaves vs Benfica — Primeira Liga 2018

Chaves
Chaves
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Benfica
Benfica
11/4/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 10Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chaves21%
×Draw23%
Benfica56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves
1.01
Benfica
1.81

Benfica creates 79% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 136 away

creates per match

Chaves
1.21
Benfica
2.07

allows per match

Chaves
1.56
Benfica
0.81

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par
Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chaves or draw
44%
Chaves or Benfica
77%
Draw or Benfica
79%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+
7%
Benfica wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals
64%
Chaves 2+ goals
27%
Chaves 3+ goals
8%
Benfica 1+ goals
84%
Benfica 2+ goals
54%
Benfica 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)
27%
Benfica (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.81 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.21 + Benfica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.01

Benfica attack 2.07 + Chaves defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chaves scores more
21%
level
23%
Benfica scores more
56%

Benfica at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Chaves 0–2 Benfica

Benfica beat Chaves 2-0 in Primeira Liga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Chaves.