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Chaves vs Belenenses — Taça de Portugal 2018

Chaves
Chaves
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Belenenses
Belenenses
11/24/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chaves35%
×Draw27%
Belenenses38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves
1.20
Belenenses
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chaves
1.00
Belenenses
1.90

allows per match

Chaves
0.67
Belenenses
1.40

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chaves or draw
62%
Chaves or Belenenses
73%
Draw or Belenenses
65%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+
15%
Belenenses wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals
70%
Chaves 2+ goals
34%
Chaves 3+ goals
12%
Belenenses 1+ goals
72%
Belenenses 2+ goals
37%
Belenenses 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)
47%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Belenenses away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.00 + Belenenses defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Belenenses attack 1.90 + Chaves defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chaves scores more
35%
level
27%
Belenenses scores more
38%

Belenenses at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Chaves 1–0 Belenenses

Chaves beat Belenenses 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Chaves.