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Belenenses vs Chaves — Primeira Liga 2018

Belenenses
Belenenses
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chaves
Chaves
12/8/2018Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 12Estadio Nacional do Jamor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Belenenses42%
×Draw27%
Chaves30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belenenses
1.35
Chaves
1.10

Belenenses creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

Belenenses
1.00
Chaves
0.75

allows per match

Belenenses
1.46
Chaves
1.71

finishing

Belenenses+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belenenses ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Belenenses or draw
70%
Belenenses or Chaves
73%
Draw or Chaves
58%

Winning margin

Belenenses wins by 2+
20%
Chaves wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Belenenses 1+ goals
74%
Belenenses 2+ goals
39%
Belenenses 3+ goals
15%
Chaves 1+ goals
67%
Chaves 2+ goals
30%
Chaves 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Belenenses (draw refunded)
58%
Chaves (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belenenses at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Chaves away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belenenses attack 1.00 + Chaves defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chaves attack 0.75 + Belenenses defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Belenenses scores more
42%
level
27%
Chaves scores more
30%

Belenenses at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Belenenses 1–0 Chaves

Belenenses beat Chaves 1-0 in Primeira Liga on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional do Jamor in Lisbon.