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Chaves vs Aves — Primeira Liga 2018

Chaves
Chaves
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aves
Aves
11/5/2018Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 9Estádio Municipal de Chaves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chaves47%
×Draw25%
Aves28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves
1.60
Aves
1.18

Chaves creates 36% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chaves
1.21
Aves
0.79

allows per match

Chaves
1.56
Aves
2.00

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par
Aves+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Aves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chaves or draw
72%
Chaves or Aves
75%
Draw or Aves
53%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+
24%
Aves wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals
80%
Chaves 2+ goals
47%
Chaves 3+ goals
22%
Aves 1+ goals
69%
Aves 2+ goals
33%
Aves 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)
63%
Aves (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Aves away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.21 + Aves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Aves attack 0.79 + Chaves defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chaves scores more
47%
level
25%
Aves scores more
28%

Chaves at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chaves vs Aves

Aves beat Chaves 2-1 in Primeira Liga on November 5, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Chaves in Chaves.