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Aves vs Chaves — Primeira Liga 2018

Aves
Aves
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chaves
Chaves
3/17/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 26Estádio do CD das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Aves41%
×Draw27%
Chaves32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aves
1.32
Chaves
1.13

Aves creates 17% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 52 away

creates per match

Aves
0.94
Chaves
0.75

allows per match

Aves
1.51
Chaves
1.71

finishing

Aves+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aves ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aves or draw
68%
Aves or Chaves
73%
Draw or Chaves
59%

Winning margin

Aves wins by 2+
19%
Chaves wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aves 1+ goals
73%
Aves 2+ goals
38%
Aves 3+ goals
15%
Chaves 1+ goals
68%
Chaves 2+ goals
31%
Chaves 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aves (draw refunded)
56%
Chaves (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Chaves away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aves attack 0.94 + Chaves defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

Chaves attack 0.75 + Aves defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aves scores more
41%
level
27%
Chaves scores more
32%

Aves at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Aves 0–1 Chaves

Chaves beat Aves 1-0 in Primeira Liga on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do CD das Aves in Vila das Aves.