Chaves 3–0 Academico Viseu: Result & Stats

Chaves

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Academico Viseu

Pedro Pinho 81'

Higor Platiny 53'

Rui Gomes 2'

1/17/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 18Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Chaves43%

×Draw27%

Academico Viseu30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChavesExpected goals in this matchAcademico Viseu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.07

Chaves

1.35

Academico Viseu

1.07

Chaves creates 26% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 133 away

1.34

creates per match

1.17

0.97

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Chaves

1.34

Academico Viseu

1.17

allows per match

Chaves

0.97

Academico Viseu

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Academico Viseu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chaves or draw

70%

Chaves or Academico Viseu

73%

Draw or Academico Viseu

57%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+

20%

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals

74%

Chaves 2+ goals

39%

Chaves 3+ goals

15%

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

66%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

29%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)

59%

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.97 · 79 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.35 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.34 + Academico Viseu defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Academico Viseu attack 1.17 + Chaves defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chaves scores more

43%

level

27%

Academico Viseu scores more

30%

Chaves at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

18'

28'

42'

53'

56'

56'

A. Marinelli← S. Messeguem

56'

Igor Milioransa← Henrique Gomes

71'

P. Ayongo← Higor Platiny

77'

Diogo Almeida← Sori Mané

77'

C. Kahraman← G. Ott

78'

R. Wilson← Rúben Pina

78'

Wellington Carvalho← Rui Gomes

78'

Alberto Soro← André Ricardo

81'

Pedro Pinho

84'

Ktatau← Pedro Pinho

90+4'

Igor Milioransa

Shots

Statistics

ChavesAcademico

Overview

3Total Shots0

3Fouls0

Shots

3Total Shots0

3On Target0

Discipline

3Fouls0