Academico Viseu 2–1 Chaves: Result & Stats

Academico Viseu

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Chaves

Marquinho 26'

Yuri Araújo 20'

Wellington Carvalho 89'

8/10/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 1Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Academico Viseu37%

×Draw28%

Chaves36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academico ViseuExpected goals in this matchChaves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.19

Academico Viseu

1.21

Chaves

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 80 away

1.26

creates per match

1.26

1.11

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Academico Viseu

1.26

Chaves

1.26

allows per match

Academico Viseu

1.11

Chaves

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Chaves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw

64%

Academico Viseu or Chaves

72%

Draw or Chaves

63%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

16%

Chaves wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

70%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

34%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

12%

Chaves 1+ goals

70%

Chaves 2+ goals

33%

Chaves 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

51%

Chaves (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.26 + Chaves defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chaves attack 1.26 + Academico Viseu defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Academico Viseu scores more

37%

level

28%

Chaves scores more

36%

Academico Viseu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Carraça

Chaves · D

7.7

Match Events

20'

Yuri Araújo

26'

Marquinho

59'

C. Kahraman← Yuri Araújo

63'

Ktatau← Pedro Tiba

63'

Wellington Carvalho← Rúben Pina

65'

D. Nussbaumer← André Clóvis

65'

Paulinho← Miguel Bandarra

71'

Higor Platiny← David Kusso

71'

Pedro Pinho← R. Wilson

78'

Jô Batista← Paulo Victor

81'

89'

90+3'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AcademicoChaves

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots16

1Corners10

15Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots16

4On Target4

4Off Target7

2Blocked5

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

285Total Passes365

209Accurate Passes273

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0