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Chaves U19 vs Feirense U19 — League #1041 2026

Chaves U19
Chaves U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Feirense U19
Feirense U19
4/12/2025League #1041League #1041 · Relegation Round - 9Complexo Desportivo Francisco Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chaves U1935%
×Draw25%
Feirense U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves U19
1.35
Feirense U19
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chaves U19
1.33
Feirense U19
1.23

allows per match

Chaves U19
1.67
Feirense U19
1.38

finishing

Chaves U19+0.00on par
Feirense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves U19 ↓

Feirense U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chaves U19 or draw
60%
Chaves U19 or Feirense U19
75%
Draw or Feirense U19
65%

Winning margin

Chaves U19 wins by 2+
16%
Feirense U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Chaves U19 1+ goals
74%
Chaves U19 2+ goals
39%
Chaves U19 3+ goals
15%
Feirense U19 1+ goals
77%
Feirense U19 2+ goals
42%
Feirense U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chaves U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Feirense U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Feirense U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves U19 attack 1.33 + Feirense U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Feirense U19 attack 1.23 + Chaves U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chaves U19 scores more
35%
level
25%
Feirense U19 scores more
40%

Feirense U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Feirense U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chaves U19 vs Feirense U19

Feirense U19 beat Chaves U19 1-0 in League #1041 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo Francisco Carvalho in Chaves.