Chaves U19 1–2 Feirense U19: Result & Stats

Chaves U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Feirense U19

Unknown 90+5'

Unknown 85', 29'

12/7/2024

League #1041 · Round 14Complexo Desportivo Francisco Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chaves U1932%

×Draw25%

Feirense U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chaves U19Expected goals in this matchFeirense U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.58

Chaves U19

1.31

Feirense U19

1.58

Feirense U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Chaves U19

1.33

Feirense U19

1.50

allows per match

Chaves U19

1.67

Feirense U19

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chaves U19+0.00on par

Feirense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves U19 ↓

Feirense U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chaves U19 or draw

56%

Chaves U19 or Feirense U19

75%

Draw or Feirense U19

68%

Winning margin

Chaves U19 wins by 2+

14%

Feirense U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Chaves U19 1+ goals

73%

Chaves U19 2+ goals

38%

Chaves U19 3+ goals

14%

Feirense U19 1+ goals

79%

Feirense U19 2+ goals

47%

Feirense U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Chaves U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Feirense U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Feirense U19 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves U19 attack 1.33 + Feirense U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Feirense U19 attack 1.50 + Chaves U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chaves U19 scores more

32%

level

25%

Feirense U19 scores more

44%

Feirense U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Feirense U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

85'

90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff