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Chatham Town W vs AFC Wimbledon W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Chatham Town W
Chatham Town W
FT
5 – 4
AFC Wimbledon W
AFC Wimbledon W
11/26/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundBauvill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chatham Town W68%
×Draw14%
AFC Wimbledon W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chatham Town W
3.96
AFC Wimbledon W
2.08

Chatham Town W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chatham Town W
6.25
AFC Wimbledon W
2.67

allows per match

Chatham Town W
1.50
AFC Wimbledon W
1.67

finishing

Chatham Town W+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon W+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chatham Town W ↓

AFC Wimbledon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

Chatham Town W or draw
82%
Chatham Town W or AFC Wimbledon W
86%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon W
32%

Winning margin

Chatham Town W wins by 2+
51%
AFC Wimbledon W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chatham Town W 1+ goals
98%
Chatham Town W 2+ goals
89%
Chatham Town W 3+ goals
73%
AFC Wimbledon W 1+ goals
87%
AFC Wimbledon W 2+ goals
61%
AFC Wimbledon W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Chatham Town W (draw refunded)
80%
AFC Wimbledon W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chatham Town W at home — creates 6.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

AFC Wimbledon W away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chatham Town W attack 6.25 + AFC Wimbledon W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 3.96

AFC Wimbledon W attack 2.67 + Chatham Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Chatham Town W scores more
68%
level
14%
AFC Wimbledon W scores more
18%

Chatham Town W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Chatham Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chatham Town W vs AFC Wimbledon W

Chatham Town W beat AFC Wimbledon W 5-4 in FA Women's Cup on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Bauvill Stadium in Chatham, Kent.