AFC Wimbledon W 3–3 Chatham Town W: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon W

Pens

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Chatham Town W

10/26/2025

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AFC Wimbledon W52%

×Draw20%

Chatham Town W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC Wimbledon WExpected goals in this matchChatham Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.77

AFC Wimbledon W

2.40

Chatham Town W

1.77

AFC Wimbledon W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.80

1.75

allows per match

3.80

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon W

1.00

Chatham Town W

1.80

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon W

1.75

Chatham Town W

3.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon W+0.00on par

Chatham Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon W ↓

Chatham Town W →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon W or draw

71%

AFC Wimbledon W or Chatham Town W

80%

Draw or Chatham Town W

48%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon W wins by 2+

32%

Chatham Town W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon W 1+ goals

91%

AFC Wimbledon W 2+ goals

69%

AFC Wimbledon W 3+ goals

42%

Chatham Town W 1+ goals

83%

Chatham Town W 2+ goals

53%

Chatham Town W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon W (draw refunded)

64%

Chatham Town W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Chatham Town W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon W attack 1.00 + Chatham Town W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Chatham Town W attack 1.80 + AFC Wimbledon W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

AFC Wimbledon W scores more

52%

level

20%

Chatham Town W scores more

29%

AFC Wimbledon W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff