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Charlton vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
18:45
West Brom
West Brom
4/20/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44The Valley
Big match
40%
West Brom
model favours
34%27%40%

West Brom score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Charlton34%
×Draw27%
West Brom40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.20
West Brom
1.33

West Brom creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.39
West Brom
1.36

allows per match

Charlton
1.30
West Brom
1.01

finishing

Charlton-0.22scores less
West Brom-0.42scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
60%
Charlton or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
66%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
14%
West Brom wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
70%
Charlton 2+ goals
34%
Charlton 3+ goals
12%
West Brom 1+ goals
74%
West Brom 2+ goals
38%
West Brom 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
46%
West Brom (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.30 · 6 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.01 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.39 + West Brom defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.20

West Brom attack 1.36 + Charlton defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Charlton scores more
34%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
40%

West Brom at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Charlton
Balanced
West Brom
Attack-heavy
46%Possession53%
71%Pass accuracy81%
10.6ShotsBiggest gap13.4
1.12xG1.39
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CharltonWest Brom

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Charlton
3
Draws
1
West Brom
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–11–02–20–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
DWLWL
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charlton vs West Brom — Match Preview

Charlton face West Brom on April 20, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Charlton host West Brom at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.