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Charlton vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
S. Carey 90'
11/4/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 14The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Charlton35%
×Draw27%
West Brom38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.20
West Brom
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.28
West Brom
1.28

allows per match

Charlton
1.26
West Brom
1.11

finishing

Charlton-0.15scores less
West Brom-0.38scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
62%
Charlton or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
65%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
15%
West Brom wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
70%
Charlton 2+ goals
34%
Charlton 3+ goals
12%
West Brom 1+ goals
72%
West Brom 2+ goals
36%
West Brom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
48%
West Brom (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 8 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.11 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.28 + West Brom defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

West Brom attack 1.28 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Charlton scores more
35%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
38%

West Brom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
S. CareyCharltonCharlton · M
8.3

Match Events

73'
M. Johnston← I. Price
74'
I. Fullah← O. Hernandez
74'
H. Knibbs← G. Docherty
81'
A. Gilchrist← S. Iling Junior
81'
J. Maja← A. Heggebo
82'
T. Olaofe← M. Leaburn
90+7'
J. Rankin-Costello← J. Bree
90+3'
C. Mepham← K. Bielik
90'
S. Carey

Possession

50%Charlton

Shots

11Charlton

Pass accuracy

50%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonWest
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots13
1.13Expected Goals (xG)1.29
4Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots13
3On Target1
3Off Target9
5Blocked3
5Inside Box9
6Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
460Total Passes456
358Accurate Passes362
78%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
-0.23Goals Prevented-0.23
Discipline
13Fouls12

Championship: Charlton 1–0 West Brom

Charlton beat West Brom 1-0 in Championship on November 4, 2025.

Goals: S. Carey (90').

Charlton controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Valley in London.