Charlton 2–2 West Brom: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

West Brom

T. Lockyer 76'

J. Davison 28'

H. Robson-Kanu 46'

K. Zohorè 22'

1/11/2020

Championship · Round 27The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Charlton34%

×Draw28%

West Brom38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.25

Charlton

1.17

West Brom

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 29 away

1.17

creates per match

1.16

1.33

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Charlton

1.17

West Brom

1.16

allows per match

Charlton

1.33

West Brom

1.16

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Charlton-0.06on par

West Brom-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

62%

Charlton or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

66%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

14%

West Brom wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

69%

Charlton 2+ goals

33%

Charlton 3+ goals

11%

West Brom 1+ goals

71%

West Brom 2+ goals

36%

West Brom 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

47%

West Brom (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.17 + West Brom defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

West Brom attack 1.16 + Charlton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Charlton scores more

34%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

38%

West Brom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Zohorè

West Brom · F

7.5

Match Events

12'

22'

28'

43'

43'

45'

46'

H. Robson-Kanu↳ M. Phillips

62'

J. Forster-Caskey← B. Dempsey

62'

J. Williams← A. Oshilaja

70'

G. Diangana← K. Zohorè

73'

C. Austin← H. Robson-Kanu

74'

T. Hemed← J. Davison

76'

T. Lockyer↳ A. Doughty

85'

Matt Phillips

86'

K. Edwards← M. Phillips

90'

Andre Green

90'

Grady Diangana

90'

Matheus Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonWest

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots19

5Corners5

10Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots19

2On Target5

4Off Target8

1Blocked6

5Inside Box10

2Outside Box9

Passing

38%Possession62%

280Total Passes456

174Accurate Passes376

62%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards6

2Offsides0