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Charlton vs Watford — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
H. Knibbs 90'
8/9/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Charlton41%
×Draw28%
Watford31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.27
Watford
1.08

Charlton creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 47 away

creates per match

Charlton
0.97
Watford
0.91

allows per match

Charlton
1.26
Watford
1.57

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
69%
Charlton or Watford
72%
Draw or Watford
59%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
18%
Watford wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
72%
Charlton 2+ goals
36%
Charlton 3+ goals
14%
Watford 1+ goals
66%
Watford 2+ goals
29%
Watford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
56%
Watford (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

Watford away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 0.97 + Watford defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Watford attack 0.91 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Charlton scores more
41%
level
28%
Watford scores more
31%

Charlton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
E. SelvikWatfordWatford · G
8.9

Match Events

25'
Hector Kyprianou
48'
Greg Docherty
52'
Kwadwo Baah
63'
N. Irankunda← K. Baah
71'
M. Leaburn← C. Kelman
72'
T. Ince← M. Doumbia
72'
J. Grieves← M. Sissoko
73'
E. Kayembe← I. Louza
80'
M. Gillesphey← T. Campbell
80'
H. Knibbs← J. Edwards
86'
T. Olaofe← S. Carey
87'
M. Alleyne← J. Abankwah
90'
H. Knibbs

Possession

42%Charlton

Shots

12Charlton

Pass accuracy

49%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonWatford
Overview
42%Possession58%
12Total Shots10
1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.72
3Corners2
6Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots10
5On Target1
4Off Target5
3Blocked4
9Inside Box4
3Outside Box6
Passing
42%Possession58%
295Total Passes411
224Accurate Passes329
76%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
-0.09Goals Prevented-0.09
Discipline
6Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2

Championship: Charlton 1–0 Watford

Charlton beat Watford 1-0 in Championship on August 9, 2025.

Goals: H. Knibbs (90').

Watford controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Valley in London.