Charlton 1–0 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Charlton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

Y. Buyens 3' (pen)

9/13/2014

Championship · Round 6The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Charlton41%

×Draw27%

Watford32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.12

Charlton

1.31

Watford

1.12

Charlton creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

1.05

creates per match

0.98

1.26

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Charlton

1.05

Watford

0.98

allows per match

Charlton

1.26

Watford

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

68%

Charlton or Watford

73%

Draw or Watford

59%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

73%

Charlton 2+ goals

38%

Charlton 3+ goals

14%

Watford 1+ goals

67%

Watford 2+ goals

31%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

56%

Watford (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Watford away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.05 + Watford defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Watford attack 0.98 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Charlton scores more

41%

level

27%

Watford scores more

32%

Charlton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Y. BuyensPenalty

28'

L. Wilson← J. Guðmundsson

46'

J. Paredes← T. Hoban

56'

F. Moussa← G. Țucudean

61'

L. Dyer← M. Vydra

77'

C. Harriott← J. Jackson

77'

O. Ighalo← L. McGugan

Charlton

Watford

1

18

6

4

31

▼

Hoban

8

Tőzsér

22

Abdi

10

▼

McGugan

21

Anya

9

Deeney

20

▼

1

26

6

16

20

17

⚽

Buyens

4

▼

Jackson

7

▼

Guðmunds

24

Cousins

29

▼

Țucudean

14

Vetokele

28'▲L. Wilson←▼J. Guðmundsson

56'▲F. Moussa←▼G. Țucudean

77'▲C. Harriott←▼J. Jackson

Charlton substitutes

2Wilson10Moussa11Harriott3Gomez5Morrison18Church30Pope

46'▲J. Paredes←▼T. Hoban

61'▲L. Dyer←▼M. Vydra

77'▲O. Ighalo←▼L. McGugan

Watford substitutes

14Paredes23Dyer24Ighalo15Cathcart19Fabbrini30Bond12Doyley