Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Charlton vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
14:00
Millwall
Millwall
4/3/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40The Valley
40%
Charlton
model favours
40%26%34%

Charlton sit 20, Millwall 3 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Charlton40%
×Draw26%
Millwall34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.44
Millwall
1.31

Charlton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.39
Millwall
1.33

allows per match

Charlton
1.30
Millwall
1.48

finishing

Charlton-0.22scores less
Millwall-0.28scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
66%
Charlton or Millwall
74%
Draw or Millwall
60%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
19%
Millwall wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
76%
Charlton 2+ goals
42%
Charlton 3+ goals
18%
Millwall 1+ goals
73%
Millwall 2+ goals
38%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
54%
Millwall (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.30 · 6 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.39 + Millwall defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Millwall attack 1.33 + Charlton defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Charlton scores more
40%
level
26%
Millwall scores more
34%

Charlton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Charlton
Balanced
Millwall
Direct / counter-attacking
46%Possession45%
71%Pass accuracy69%
11.3ShotsBiggest gap12.0
1.27xG1.34
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CharltonMillwall

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
DWLWL
Millwall
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charlton face Millwall (Championship)

Championship returns with Charlton hosting Millwall. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Charlton host Millwall at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.