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Charlton vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
15:00
Cardiff
Cardiff
2/20/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33The Valley
39%
Charlton
model favours
39%27%33%

Charlton and Cardiff have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Charlton39%
×Draw27%
Cardiff33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.28
Cardiff
1.15

Charlton creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

Charlton
0.90
Cardiff
0.98

allows per match

Charlton
1.32
Cardiff
1.66

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
67%
Charlton or Cardiff
73%
Draw or Cardiff
61%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
18%
Cardiff wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
72%
Charlton 2+ goals
37%
Charlton 3+ goals
14%
Cardiff 1+ goals
68%
Cardiff 2+ goals
32%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
54%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 0.90 + Cardiff defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cardiff attack 0.98 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Charlton scores more
39%
level
27%
Cardiff scores more
33%

Charlton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Charlton
DWLWL
Cardiff
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Charlton host Cardiff

February 20, 2027: Charlton take on Cardiff in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Charlton host Cardiff at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.