Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Charlton vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
J. Leko 42'
C. Gallagher 13'
L. Tomlin 73'
N. Mendez-Laing 52'
11/23/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Charlton40%
×Draw27%
Cardiff33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.31
Cardiff
1.15

Charlton creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 61 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.05
Cardiff
1.03

allows per match

Charlton
1.26
Cardiff
1.56

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
67%
Charlton or Cardiff
73%
Draw or Cardiff
60%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
18%
Cardiff wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
73%
Charlton 2+ goals
38%
Charlton 3+ goals
14%
Cardiff 1+ goals
68%
Cardiff 2+ goals
32%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
55%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.05 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Charlton scores more
40%
level
27%
Cardiff scores more
33%

Charlton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. LekoCharltonCharlton · F
8.0

Match Events

13'
C. Gallagher↳ J. Leko
42'
J. Leko↳ E. Öztümer
52'
N. Mendez-Laing
56'
A. Morgan← J. Cullen
58'
Gary Madine
67'
L. Tomlin← J. Hoilett
67'
O. Bogle← G. Madine
73'
L. Tomlin↳ J. Bennett
79'
A. Doughty← J. Leko
79'
W. Vaulks← C. Paterson
82'
Lee Peltier
85'
Lee Tomlin
90'
Macauley Bonne

Possession

57%Charlton

Shots

15Charlton

Pass accuracy

52%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonCardiff
Overview
57%Possession43%
15Total Shots23
5Corners4
12Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots23
4On Target8
3Off Target6
8Blocked9
9Inside Box13
6Outside Box10
Passing
57%Possession43%
485Total Passes356
393Accurate Passes270
81%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Championship: Charlton 2–2 Cardiff

Charlton and Cardiff drew 2-2 in Championship on November 23, 2019.

Goals: C. Gallagher (13'), J. Leko (42'), N. Mendez-Laing (52'), L. Tomlin (73').

Charlton controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 23.

The match was played at The Valley in London.