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Charlton vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
2/13/2016ChampionshipChampionship · Round 31The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Charlton40%
×Draw27%
Cardiff33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.31
Cardiff
1.15

Charlton creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 61 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.05
Cardiff
1.03

allows per match

Charlton
1.26
Cardiff
1.56

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
67%
Charlton or Cardiff
73%
Draw or Cardiff
60%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
18%
Cardiff wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
73%
Charlton 2+ goals
38%
Charlton 3+ goals
14%
Cardiff 1+ goals
68%
Cardiff 2+ goals
32%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
55%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.05 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Charlton scores more
40%
level
27%
Cardiff scores more
33%

Charlton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
T. LawrenceCardiffCardiff · M
7.8

Match Events

45'
Sammy Ameobi
46'
L. Peltier← Fábio
65'
E. Ba← J. Jackson
68'
F. Macheda← S. OKeefe
73'
Y. Sanogo← J. Cousins
75'
D. Poyet← R. Ghoochannejhad
78'
A. Gunnarsson← P. Whittingham
79'
Zakarya Bergdich
87'
Simon Makienok
90'
Sammy Ameobi
90'
Sammy Ameobi

Possession

47%Charlton

Shots

14Charlton

Pass accuracy

49%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonCardiff
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots18
4Corners8
0Fouls0
Shots
14Total Shots18
2On Target3
6Off Target10
6Blocked5
9Inside Box9
5Outside Box9
Passing
47%Possession53%
316Total Passes345
218Accurate Passes248
69%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
0Fouls0
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides4

Championship: Charlton 0–0 Cardiff

Charlton and Cardiff drew 0-0 in Championship on February 13, 2016.

Cardiff controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Valley in London.